On the outset of 2016 one may wonder where the next growth engine for world economy may come from. As the potential lenses in the world is so complex I concentrate on my native Germany as a point of reference. Germany in the last 10 years has gone trough 4 distinct phases I labour market reform II BRIC’s driven Export Boom III European Fiscal Crisis (ongoing) IIII national consume and property boom.
Germany is always showcased as such a robust and rich county but on neutral observation quite the opposite is the case. Germany’s debt ratio stands at +80% of its mighty GDP and our government has not been able to live trough a self sustaining budget for decades. Germany depends on international goodwill and trust to maintain low interests on government bonds.
The country’s overall state after 10 years of European banking / credit / fiscal crisis is not great and on this foundation falls the just starting migration phenomena.
The question I’d like to analyse here is what next trend / macro economic development can be a wealth creating replacement for BRIC’s export and national consumerism?
I ascertain 3 possible avenues of growth
- Germany pioneers clean energy creation and becomes a role model for a clean energy nation (e.g. by way of tax incentives for clean transportation, free & modern public transport)
- Germany investigates what unique advantages it can derive from the changed citizen structure (1 million non Christian migrants in 2015) and puts this to advantages to work
- Along the lines of a loosening EU framework Germany could create an attractive environment for foreign investment by lowering corporation tax, income tax and VAT and make smart tax distinguishing’s
Whichever avenue you glance at; the era of easy growth are surely over; emerging markets are oversold on German cars and production machines, the German citizens will soon have over- indebted themselves on consumer products and far overvalued apartments.
In global comparison Germany still has some advantages e.g. the strong industry, but the output of this industry must be smartly changed to continue to prosper.
I would like to see a debate unfolding on what strategic options Germany has to maintain its status as a wealthy and well caring nation.
Maybe this blog post could be a humble starting point?